Nareit_2020 EconomicOutlook

Overview

The U.S. economy followed a somewhat predictable cyclical pattern from the end of World War II until the 2000s. GDP and employment growth would acceler- ate as the economy got up to speed after a downturn. Eventually, as the unemployment rate moved lower and lower, wage growth and in ation would accelerate.

In response, the Federal Reserve would raise short-term interest rates higher than long-term rates, causing the yield curve to invert; the economy would slow and usu- ally enter a recession.