Nareit_2020 EconomicOutlook

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Nareit_2020 EconomicOutlook

Outlook for the Economy, Real Estate and REITs in 2020:

What to Look for in Uncharted Waters


The U.S. economy followed a somewhat predictable cyclical pattern from the end of World War II until the 2000s. GDP and employment growth would acceler- ate as the economy got up to speed after a downturn. Eventually, as the unemployment rate moved lower and lower, wage growth and in ation would accelerate.

In response, the Federal Reserve would raise short-term interest rates higher than long-term rates, causing the yield curve to invert; the economy would slow and usu- ally enter a recession.